DJ Lagway gives the Bears star power at quarterback, but Dave Aranda’s future may be decided by whether a rebuilt roster can win where last year’s team could not.
By Jalen Gillis | Centex Sports Network
WACO, Texas — Baylor enters the 2026 football season with a former five-star quarterback, a reconstructed roster and little room for patience.
For coach Dave Aranda, the equation is straightforward: Win now.
Aranda will begin his seventh season in Waco after Baylor finished 5–7 overall and 3–6 in Big 12 play in 2025. The Bears’ decision to retain him came amid upheaval in the athletic department following the departure of athletic director Mack Rhoades. Baylor President Linda Livingstone said at the time that the program’s long-term direction would be determined by the university’s next athletic director.
That context makes 2026 more than another rebuilding year. It is a referendum on whether Aranda can restore a program that won the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl in 2021 but has produced three losing seasons in the four years since.
The pressure surrounding Aranda is matched by the intrigue surrounding his new quarterback.
DJ Lagway arrives from Florida as one of the most physically gifted players to enter the transfer portal. A former five-star prospect and the nation’s top-ranked dual-threat quarterback in ESPN’s 2024 class, Lagway returns to his home state with two seasons of eligibility remaining. He grew up in Willis, roughly two hours from Waco, and his father, Derek, played running back at Baylor.
Lagway’s talent is undeniable. So is the need for a reset.
He passed for 2,264 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025, but his 14 interceptions were the most among Power Four quarterbacks. Injuries interrupted his development during two seasons at Florida, and the Gators went 4–8 last fall before changing coaches. Baylor now offers him a fresh start — and the responsibility of replacing one of the nation’s most productive passers.
Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,681 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2025. At one point late in the season, he led the country in passing yards. Yet even that level of quarterback play was not enough to lift Baylor into a bowl game.
That is the warning attached to all the optimism around Lagway: Baylor’s problems extended far beyond quarterback.
The Bears lost several foundational players after the season. Robertson, wide receivers Josh Cameron and Kobe Prentice, tight end Michael Trigg and defensive lineman Jackie Marshall were among the players who participated in Baylor’s pro day. Cameron was later selected by Jacksonville in the sixth round of the NFL draft.
The transfer portal created even more significant holes. Running back Bryson Washington, Baylor’s leading rusher in 2025, left for Auburn. Leading tackler Keaton Thomas transferred to Ole Miss. Edge rusher Matthew Fobbs-White went to Virginia, while center Coleton Price — a 31-game consecutive starter — moved to Kentucky. Baylor lost 32 players during the 2026 portal cycle, a level of turnover that makes projecting improvement difficult.
That does not mean the roster is without upside.
Lagway will have experienced targets in Gavin Freeman and Dre’lon Miller. Freeman previously produced in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State, while Miller brings size and playmaking ability after two seasons at Colorado. Dawson Pendergrass also returns after missing the 2025 season with a foot injury. He ran for 671 yards and six touchdowns in 2024 and should have an opportunity to lead the backfield, with Caden Knighten providing another option after flashing as a freshman.
The pieces suggest Baylor could lean more heavily on the running game, shorten games and reduce the burden on Lagway. That approach would also address two problems from last season: Baylor possessed the ball for only 29 minutes, 15 seconds per game and committed 12 lost fumbles.
But that plan will work only if the offensive line can establish itself.
Price’s departure leaves the Bears without the anchor of last year’s unit. Lagway has already endured two injury-disrupted college seasons, making protection more than a tactical concern; it could determine Baylor’s ceiling. The Bears do not need their line to dominate immediately, but they must create a dependable running game and prevent Lagway from spending another season under constant pressure.
The same urgency applies on defense.
Baylor allowed 32.6 points per game in 2025 and generated only 22 sacks. Through nine games, the Bears ranked 124th nationally in tackles for loss, an indication of how rarely their front disrupted opponents behind the line of scrimmage. For a head coach whose reputation was built on defense, that production was not close to good enough.
Now Aranda must replace Thomas, Fobbs-White and other major contributors while producing a unit that is more physical and disruptive. The new defensive front does not need star recognition, but it must stop the run, win early downs and create pressure without forcing Baylor to blitz itself out of position.
That is the path to a turnaround: control possession, protect the football and become stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides.
There is at least one quality that appears throughout Baylor’s rebuilt roster — urgency.
Aranda is coaching for his future. Lagway is trying to reestablish himself as one of the nation’s top quarterback talents and a legitimate NFL prospect. Pendergrass is returning from a lost season. Freeman and Miller are attempting to become the leaders of a new receiving corps. Transfers across the roster are looking for larger roles and another opportunity.
Hunger, however, is only useful if it becomes production.
Baylor will receive an immediate answer Sept. 5 against Auburn in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Central on ABC. Auburn beat Baylor 38–24 in Waco to open last season, but the Tigers have since undergone their own overhaul. First-year coach Alex Golesh added 40 players in his first two months and brought 13 former South Florida players with him.
Early projections place Baylor as roughly a touchdown underdog. A decisive loss would bring every question about Aranda’s future back to the surface before the Bears return home. An upset would change the tone of the season and create a realistic path to a 3–0 start, with Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech visiting McLane Stadium before Big 12 play begins against Colorado.
That opening stretch gives Baylor an opportunity. It offers no guarantees.
The Bears have a quarterback capable of creating big plays, several proven skill-position options and a roster filled with players who have something to prove. They also have major questions along both lines, a defense that must make a substantial leap and a coach entering the most consequential season of his tenure.
The possibilities are wide. So is the margin for failure.
For Baylor, 2026 is not simply about whether Lagway can revive his career or whether a collection of transfers can fit together. It is about whether Aranda can turn urgency into wins — and whether the Bears can finally build a complete team around a talented quarterback.
The answer may determine much more than one season.
